The USD/JPY pair recently reached a new multi-year high at 161.95 before experiencing a downward correction. This move was preceded by a break below a significant bullish trend line with support at 161.50 on the 4-hour chart. Despite this correction, the pair remains above the 100 and 200 simple moving averages, indicating a strong uptrend. Immediate support is expected near the 160.65 level, followed by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 160.25. A breach below this support zone could lead to further losses towards the 159.20 level. Conversely, on the upside, resistance is seen at 161.50, 161.80, and the main hurdle at 162.00. A clear breakout above 162.00 could propel the pair towards 162.75 and potentially 163.50 in the days ahead.
Meanwhile, oil prices are showing signs of bullish momentum as they approach the $85.00 resistance zone. The current sentiment in the market suggests that the bulls are in control and could push prices higher in the near term. A successful breach above $85.00 could pave the way for further gains, with the next targets being $90.00 and beyond. However, any failure to break above the resistance could result in a pullback towards immediate support levels around $80.00.
In addition to the technical analysis of USD/JPY and oil prices, upcoming economic releases could sway market sentiment. The US nonfarm payrolls data for June 2024 is expected to show a forecast of 190K, compared to the previous figure of 272K. Similarly, the US unemployment rate for the same period is forecasted to remain steady at 4.0%. Any surprises in these economic indicators could lead to increased volatility in the financial markets, impacting the movements of the USD/JPY pair and oil prices.
The outlook for USD/JPY and oil prices is a mix of technical analysis and economic data. Traders and investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as upcoming economic releases, to make informed decisions in the volatile market environment.