Turkey’s Statistical Institute (TUIK) has been under scrutiny due to credibility concerns surrounding its inflation data. The institute faced criticism earlier this year when it admitted to not having historical data on product prices beyond May 2022 and stopped sharing it. This lack of transparency raised suspicions among economists and analysts.
In an attempt to address the concerns, the head of the statistics institute, Erhan Cetinkaya, defended the way inflation figures are calculated. He claimed that Turkey’s inflation data is compiled similarly to other countries and dismissed the criticisms as “unjust”. Cetinkaya emphasized that inflation is calculated based on more than 600,000 prices, and the historical product prices that are not being shared have no significant value.
Despite TUIK’s reassurances, experts like Hakan Kara, a former chief central bank economist, have questioned the decision to withhold historical product prices. Kara argued that this data is essential for calculating the consumer price index and raised doubts about the institute’s transparency. The lack of historical data has led to skepticism about the accuracy of Turkey’s inflation calculations.
While TUIK has faced criticism since 2018 regarding its inflation data, some economists believe that accuracy has improved since June 2023. The implementation of new economic policies under a new cabinet has been cited as a reason for the improvement. However, concerns persist over the lack of transparency and the impact on the reliability of inflation figures.
Cetinkaya defended Turkey’s official inflation data, stating that it is comparable to global standards. He noted that perceived inflation among Turks is double the official figure, highlighting a disconnect between public perception and official statistics. Despite using global calculation methods, TUIK still faces challenges in aligning perceived and official inflation rates.
In response to growing inflationary pressures, Turkey’s central bank has raised its policy rate significantly to curb rising prices. The latest data for June indicated a slight decrease in annual inflation, signaling a potential downward trend. However, concerns remain about the accuracy and transparency of Turkey’s inflation data, especially with the withholding of historical prices. The upcoming July figures will shed more light on the evolving inflation landscape in Turkey.