The chances of President Joe Biden not seeking re-election have been estimated at 40% by Stifel, a notable firm in Washington. Brian Gardner, the firm’s chief Washington policy strategist, has stated that this upcoming week is crucial for Biden’s campaign as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess. Gardner believes that although there is a 60% chance that Biden will run again, there is still a significant possibility that he may choose not to.
According to Gardner, Biden is motivated by proving the skeptics within the Democratic party wrong. As such, he may be more inclined to stay in the race, especially when faced with pressure from elites to drop out. Gardner points out that those urging Biden to withdraw lack the necessary leverage to force him out of the race. He argues that even his most loyal supporters are unlikely to turn on him and not support his nomination.
Throughout Biden’s latest bid for the presidency, concerns about his age have persisted. However, it was his poor debate performance in June that has significantly altered the conversation surrounding his campaign. As polling data and financial markets reflect a shift in sentiment favoring former President Donald Trump, it raises doubts about Biden’s ability to secure the nomination.
Despite the challenges Biden faces, Gardner believes that there is still hope for the Democratic party to come out on top. He suggests that a portion of the electorate will never vote for Trump, regardless of the circumstances. This unwavering support for Biden could be a deciding factor in the upcoming election, potentially securing his re-election bid.
While there are concerns about Biden’s re-election prospects, there is still a level of optimism regarding his campaign. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether he chooses to stay in the race and how the Democratic party will navigate the challenges ahead.