The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May is highly anticipated, with expectations of no change in the Fed funds target range. The Fed is likely to maintain the target range at 5.25%-5.50%, given persistent inflation above the 2.0% target. Despite the hot PCE inflation data, coupled with strong employment growth, the Fed has signaled no immediate need to ease policy. The recent communication from Fed officials about the rates being at their peak further supports the stance of maintaining the current levels. However, investors have already priced in a total of 36bps of easing for the year, indicating a cautious sentiment in the market.
While all eyes are on the FOMC meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are also facing speculations of rate cuts. The market has priced in 71bps of easing for the ECB and 44bps for the BoE, reflecting a hawkish repricing in both regions. The ECB is expected to move ahead of the Fed and BoE, with a potential rate cut in June’s policy meeting. On the other hand, the BoE might consider easing policy in August. This shift in monetary policy direction in Europe adds to the uncertainty in the global economic landscape.
The euro area flash inflation data for April and Q1 GDP numbers will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for the region. Economists estimate headline YoY inflation to remain at 2.4%, with core inflation cooling slightly to 2.8% in the twelve months to April. The GDP is expected to remain flat on both a YoY and QoQ basis. Any deviation from these estimates could trigger volatility in the EUR/USD currency pair, potentially leading to a downside move. The recent failure to break a key resistance level on the daily timeframe suggests a bearish bias in the near term.
In the US, a busy week for jobs data awaits with the release of ADP employment numbers and the JOLTs number. While ADP numbers may not be the most reliable indicator, any significant deviation could impact the market sentiment. Additionally, the employment sub-index from the ISM manufacturing data will provide further insights into the labor market conditions. As the global economic landscape remains uncertain, these indicators will be closely watched for any signs of weakness or strength in the US economy.
The economic landscape in May is characterized by cautious optimism and uncertainty. Central banks around the world are navigating through inflationary pressures and slowing growth, making policy decisions challenging. As investors brace for potential rate cuts and economic data releases, the coming weeks will be critical in shaping market expectations and determining the direction of major currency pairs and financial markets as a whole.