As we look at the current monthly chart, the 200-day SMA is a significant level to watch, with potential downside support around 104.39. A break below this level could open the door to 103.62 support. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has struggled to move above the 50.00 centerline recently, hinting at a bearish sentiment in the market.
On the daily timeframe, we saw the dollar facing resistance at 105.04 and the 50-day SMA at 104.98. The price finished lower on Friday, suggesting that bears might continue to be in control. The upcoming test at the 200-day SMA will be crucial, especially considering previous reactions to this level observed earlier in the year.
Looking at the short-term H1 chart, we can see the price stuck between ascending support from the low of 104.39 and trendline resistance from the low of 104.08. Resistance levels are noted at 104.84 and 105.04, while potential support lies near the moderate Fibonacci cluster around 104.47. The current downtrend, combined with the RSI signaling bearish momentum, suggests that sellers have the upper hand for now.
Overall, the technical outlook for the dollar appears bearish in the short term. The price action on the H1 timeframe could determine whether the market continues to favor sellers, with a potential move towards the Fibonacci cluster at 104.47. However, a breakthrough of current trendline resistance could shift the momentum towards sellers aiming for the next resistance level at 104.80. Traders will need to closely monitor key technical levels to navigate the current market conditions effectively.