China’s Caixin S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 51.4 in April to 51.7 in May, according to the latest data released on Monday. The reading beat the market consensus of 51.5 in the reported month. Production expands at most pronounced pace since June 2022. Fastest purchasing activity growth in three years as confidence improves. Input price inflation rises to seven-month high.
Analysis of the Impact on the Australian Dollar
The upbeat Chinese Manufacturing PMI underpins the sentiment around the Aussie Dollar, as AUD/USD flirts with intraday highs near 0.6665, at the time of writing, up 0.18% on the day. One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods, and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive for the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought-after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The Manufacturing PMI in China has far-reaching effects on the value of the Australian Dollar. The health of the Chinese economy, the price of Iron Ore, and the Trade Balance all play significant roles in determining the strength of the AUD. Understanding these factors and their interplay is crucial for investors and traders looking to navigate the currency markets.